Podesta Group

The national unemployment rate was eight percent, but the recent economic news was heartening. The president’s approval rating hovered below 50 percent, but his favorability was also showing an uptick. Meanwhile, the opposition party was divided by a bitter contest for the presidential nomination.

Respected by friends and foes alike as a great orator, the President prepared his State of the Union (SOTU) address to serve not only as a statement of his legislative agenda, but also as an elevated iteration of what would become the stump speech for his re-election campaign.

Sound like the predicament President Obama faces on the eve of his 2012 SOTU speech? Sure. But it’s actually a flashback to how another “great communicator,” Ronald Reagan, approached the challenge of his SOTU speech in 1984, less than ten months before he would win a landslide victory for a second term.

For skilled presidential communicators, the SOTU speech is the ideal forum for kicking off a re-election campaign. But presidents need to clear historic hurdles: not sounding partisan; not seeming too hopeful or, worse yet, too pessimistic about the country’s condition; and making sure to offer new and credible policy initiatives, even if their proposals stand little chance of being enacted during an election year.

For communicators of the caliber of Presidents Obama, Reagan and Clinton, the SOTU is the high-point of their calendars. No other event allows presidents to be so, well, presidential. In fact, SOTU addresses take their name from Article 2, Section 3, of the Constitution, which declares that the President “shall from time to time, give to the Congress information on the state of the Union.” During the past century, the speech has evolved into a modern-day media event, with Woodrow Wilson becoming the first president to address a Joint Session of Congress, Franklin D. Roosevelt mastering the medium of radio, Harry Truman pioneering nationally televised addresses, and Ronald Reagan introducing the tradition of honoring regular citizens in the gallery.

SOTU speeches have become ceremonial occasions – the American equivalent of the British Queen or King addressing Parliament in a “throne speech.” Almost every recent SOTU address has received favorable ratings from the public shortly after its delivery. What matters most, however, is the speech’s rhetorical half-life — whether its ideas remain persuasive during the weeks and months ahead, especially during an election year.

President Reagan’s 1984 speech may serve as a model for President Obama tonight. As with President Reagan, President Obama took office during a serious economic crisis, advocates a different political philosophy from his immediate predecessor, and, while well-liked personally, arouses great antagonism among his adversaries. (President Reagan knew how to make the most of challenging circumstances. I should know; I was a speechwriter for his defeated Democratic opponent, Walter Mondale.)

Why was Reagan’s rhetoric so successful in 1984? And how may President Obama crib one from the Gipper?

First, President Reagan walked the rhetorical tightrope between being a Pollyanna and a pessimist.

As he began his SOTU address, Reagan reported that inflation was declining – the best economic news at hand. Then he made sure to add, “But we know that many of our fellow countrymen are still out of work.”

President Obama, too, may mention some encouraging developments on the economy. But, even more than Reagan, he will be careful to commiserate with those who are struggling.

Second, President Reagan reminded his listeners of the economic crisis he inherited and spoke of a long journey from recession to recovery.

Without mentioning the name Jimmy Carter, Reagan declared: “As we came to the decade of the eighties, we faced the worst crisis in our postwar history.” Rather than claim credit for restoring prosperity, he said simply, “We’re confronting our problems one by one.”
Expect President Obama to remind Americans of the economic crisis that he inherited without blaming or naming his predecessor, while speaking of steps on a long journey to create “an economy built to last.”

Third, President Reagan made a philosophical argument without sounding partisan.

A longtime advocate for conservative causes, Reagan attributed “years of rising problems and falling confidence” to “a feeling that government had grown beyond the consent of the governed.” The Great Communicator wisely didn’t use the words Democrat or Republican, or even liberal or conservative.

Similarly, President Obama will strive for a presidential way to present a philosophical approach. Just as Reagan’s 1984 address quoted Democratic icons, President Obama may quote Republicans and revered business leaders.

Fourth, President Reagan previewed his campaign slogan.

In his 1984 address, Reagan introduced the slogan, “America is back.” President Obama, too, would do well to test the slogans and sound bites that he will use on the campaign trail.

Fifth, President Reagan understood that policy matters, too.

Even though, as with President Obama, he had to work with a House of Representatives controlled by the opposition party, President Reagan did present a legislative agenda in 1984.

President Obama has signaled that he will call for an ambitious agenda. He will urge passage of provisions from his Jobs Bill. He will call for continuing the payroll tax cut and assistance for the long-term unemployed. He’ll address the housing crisis. And he will propose improvements in education and skills training.

Finally, President Obama may borrow one dramatic technique not from the former film star Ronald Reagan but from President Clinton. In several SOTU speeches, Clinton made pithy statements that he expected members of his own party to stand up and cheer, but that left members of the other party to wonder whether to applaud or sit silent.

Perhaps President Obama will use the same technique tonight. And somewhere the Gipper may smile, however fleetingly, at this example of statecraft as stagecraft.